Decision Makers 2010 Building Sustainability in a Globalized World Conference June 7-10, 2000, Hong Kong Executive Summary Program & Real Audio Presentations Participants Picture Gallery Art Gallery Word-Download: Executive Summary in German

				Summary Working Group 2 Using Digitalization and Biotechnology to Solve Problems of Demography and the Environment Listen also to the rapporteur Moira Gunn Summary (18:41 min) The second working group addressed the fundamental question of whether new technologies, above all, biotechnology and digital technologies were up to the challenges posed by the world of the twenty-first century: growing world population, accompanied by declining and aging populations in leading industrialized countries; increasing resource consumption; the need for sustainable development; and environmental degradation and global warming. Digitalization as a Tool Taking the digital revolution as his starting point, Jih Chang (Bob) Yang, Executive Vice President of Taiwan's Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), brought facts and figures about the overall consequences of development to the group's attention [listen to his presentation]. It is possible that digitalization and the growing importance of services in advanced economies can result in an economy that is less materially oriented, and thus less of a burden on the environment. Indeed, the question of sustainability is a question of whether or not dematerialization can increase as fast as, or perhaps even faster than, economic growth as a whole. If the rate of dematerialization, that is replacing physical objects with information (for instance, reducing inventories by having better information about demand), equals the amount of economic growth, then the growth could be called sustainable. If growth in nonmaterial parts of the economy exceeds the overall rate of growth, then there is a net reduction in the amount of materials needed to support economic growth and rising living standards. Yang noted in an aside that economic growth is likely to make a far greater impact on the environment than simple population growth for two reasons. First, global population growth seems to be leveling off, and the vast majority of population growth is coming in places where people consume fewer resources. Second, continuous economic growth is desired by virtually every government on the globe, with little likelihood of change. Furthermore, strong economic growth in industrialized societies demands much more in terms of resources than population growth in less developed societies. Digitalization is, however, a double-edged sword. In today's production chains, prices increase up to 500% between producer and consumer. By removing intermediaries, electronic commerce may cause prices to fall at the consumer level, encouraging a net increase in resources consumed. (One example of this is in the personal computer market, where increasing quality and decreasing price feed an upward spiral in computer purchases.) While these improvements in living standards may be terrific for individuals, the net environmental effect could be very problematic. The Role of Biotechnology Boris Steipe, a key invesitgator at the University of Munich's Genetic Research Center, noted that for biology the twentieth century was one of molecular biology, while the twenty-first will likely be a century of genomic biology, and only the mastery of both will begin to give us true biotechnology [listen to his presentation]. By genomic biology, he meant biology derived from the understanding of the various genomes that are being mapped today in projects around the world. From mice to rice to fruit flies to humans, complete maps of the genetic material of a growing number of species are being assembled by scientists. But this knowledge, important as the achievement of discovering it has been, is only the raw material for the next stage of biological understanding. Biology in the twenty-first century will be concerned with how the genomes make proteins, how these proteins are formed (i.e., folded), and how they interact with living organisms. Biology has great promise, but the history of the biotechnology industry is littered with unfulfilled promise. Steipe identified two broad fields of challenges to living up to biotech's promise: technological and societal. Technological problems should not be underestimated. For example, the problem of how to deliver new genes to living organisms (the vector problem of gene therapy) is a highly nontrivial technical challenge. Societal problems might be even more intractable. Science is driven by curiosity, and pure science advances without much input from society. The technological applications of science, however, are very much driven by social demands, and here there is often a lack of leadership, or a mismatch between the amount of regulation and the amount of risk. For instance, worries about "runaway" genetically modified plants overwhelming existing varieties are probably overstated because the modification confers no advantage in reproduction. That is, there is nothing selecting modified plants to survive at a greater rate, and thus no reason to expect that they will reproduce any more than existing agricultural plants. But this message about the working of natural selection is very difficult to communicate to politicians and the public, even though it is bedrock science. Steipe proposed three goals in regard to biotech: 1. Realize opportunities Solve technological problems Focus on markets Focus on the field's strengths Focus on consumer advantages 2. Avoid asymmetries Guard against centralization Increase global cooperation Ensure freedom Ensure dignity 3. Regulate sensibly Motivate rather than legislate De-emphasize patents Provide incentives for sustainability Finally, he noted that a culture oriented toward challenging authority was essential both for good science and the good use of scientific knowledge. Key Thoughts From the Discussion On the need for new approaches Ulrich Goluke pointed out that science and society are driven by stories, by myths - the story of discovery, the story of progress, the story of material improvement. If our global civilization is to head toward sustainability, we need similarly powerful myths and stories that support a sustainable world. We need motivating tales of sustainability as powerful as those of Einstein or Galileo. On the process of science Bob Yang said the closer we get to fundamental knowledge - and in many fields today we are very close indeed - the faster changes come, and it is not surprising that society lags behind. Furthermore, the joy of discovery is so strong that prohibitions on scientific activity are not very useful. On patents Nalinee Taveesin called for revision and narrowing of patents. The transfer of research between the first and third world, and the communication of this process, was important to expand the circle of people benefiting from technology. Michel Catinat regretted the lack of communication and standardization among the world's patent authorities. On institutions Clemens Muth said that institutions, especially in science and technology, need to renew themselves constantly. Otherwise they find themselves disconnected from current problems or even standing in the way of solutions that they were meant to help find. On personal implications Moira Gunn added that science and technology are boosting complexity, making the world appear less comprehensible, but that one key outcome would be an increase in individualization everywhere in the world. Executive Summary | Program
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