II. Compensation - The Dialectic of an Interregnum

The mobile information society is fulfilling a new global reality, initiating a new phase of social change, and intensifying the extent of international interdependence. The cement of the old order no long binds societal powers. The vertical lines of the East-West conflict that were so influential for decades are being replaced by horizontal conflict lines within societies. In America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific societal cohesion has been based on a promise of prosperity and on the desire of all to live better. Globalisation opens up new prospects for that, alongside new challenges, as international interdependence means an increase in vulnerability to failures elsewhere and creates interaction between societies far removed from one another in both distance and culture.

Because globalisation is so far ahead of societies recognition of its effects, a time lap has opened up. The globally relevant problem patterns no longer correspond to the prevailing national, regional, and international solution structures. A paradox seems to exist - the quantity of available information has never been as abundant as it is today and yet the idea of human future remains vague.

Societies and politics have delayed reactions to rising challenges. Their structures reflect the processing of back-dated conflicts and problems. To date, this model has proved itself in a traditional speed of development, but it may break down when the tempo of change increases. And that is just the case today. Political adaptation can not follow the dynamics of economics and technology. Societies are stepping backwards into a future in which much will be without precedent, i.e. the size of the world population, the density of its communication, and the measure of its economic interdependence.

The radicalness of this structural change is expressed by compensation, in dialectic search for a balance between risks and uncertainties. This radicalness is typical for an interregnum and for society's uncertainty about future paradigms. An interregnum is a stage of transition where differing, sometimes opposing, models compete. It is becoming obvious that globalisation and technological change will provoke a conflict of feelings within many people. The confident trust some have in new opportunities for individual and societal development faces the fear others have of losing material possessions and social security.

This interregnum of contemporary society is expressed by three models of interpretation that respond to specific characteristics of the change:


1. Globalisation leads to sharpening of cultural zones

The creation of a transnational networked society, supported by both English as a standard language and a spreading communication network, results in a countermove to emphasise regional and local unity in an effort to preserve individual identity. Citizens, social groups, or sections of society actively evade the uncertainties of the transnational world. Such reaction models are best articulated by the sharpening of cultural zones, which is becoming especially obvious in the growing number of ethno-national conflicts.

The universalism of globalisation provokes demarcation, and internationalisation has nationalism and fragmentation as consequences. Ethnic, historical, and national ties gain power to cause conflict.

The risk of international wars has diminished with the end of the East-West conflict. At present there is no threat to security comparable to the danger posed by the bipolar world system. In return, however, the increase in internal or regional conflicts cannot be ignored. In Europe there are, for example, the ethnic confrontation in Kosovo and the ethno-national conflicts in Ireland, Spain, and France. Other examples are the minority and nationality conflicts in Southeast Europe and the political conflict potential in Asia, where increasing ethnical and social tension is possible. The financial crisis has thrown parts of the population into poverty and the political systems have proven themselves unstable. The region lacks the democratic tradition of Europe or North America to be able to mediate conflict with majority votes.


Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)


The internationalisation of politics and economics is increasing the contact points of different religions, world views, and ways of life. Topics of conflict are arising between, as well as within, societies and often marginalisation, xenophobia, and fundamentalism are the answers to political change. This is exhibited by the attraction of Islamist movements in central Asia, the nationalistic politics of right wings in Russia, or the extremist endeavours of some Hindus in India.

In the industrial nation-states themselves, interdependence and immigration can lead to xenophobia. Globalisation seems, to many, to be a zero-sum game where the gains in other economic areas automatically imply losses at home. The prospects of major discontinuities in individual biographies create uncertainty and fear of the future. The search for individual identity, anxiety about personal protection, and defence of one's own terrain can cause the stranger to seem increasingly more threatening. Migration of people in need calls for state resources and can rouse conflict to the point of actual violence. The gains by movements hostile to foreigners in Germany and France in the nineties are prominent examples of this, as is the violence in Indonesia against well-to-do Chinese. In order to uphold civil and peaceful order, however, it is essential that people learn to live with this new variety, to respect differences, and to be able to handle them open-mindedly.

In terms of economic regionalisation, the USA, Europe, and Asia have all, to varying degrees, grasped the economic problems resulting from globalisation and combined their strengths and skills. This resulted in NAFTA in North America, Mercosur in South America, the EU in Europe, the ASEAN in South Asia, and the APEC in Asia-Pacific. The goal of economic regionalisation is to expand trade and stimulate the growth with liberalisation and deregulation. Economic activity is executed within the framework of common concepts of order and procedures, which make conflict solutions as well as regulations possible.


2. The decline of traditional belief systems provokes a search for new orientations

The extent and speed of the economic, technological and societal change is already overtaxing many people. Excessive demands of change are strengthened by a loss of collective identities in modern day society. Collective identity deficits are the result of a world that has become non-transparent, and in which no institution has a monopoly on making sense of the world. Traditional large institutions, such as parties, churches or associations, and their accompanying political programmes, ideologies, or religions have lost their binding power. Europe is going through a phase of so-called 'dechurching' like no other region in the world. Secularisation has led to an idea of society that renounces religion's traditional interpretation. Religious and similar impulses are migrating out of traditional institutions, and new religious as well as non-religious groups are laying claim to recognition in the public arena. This shifting of the search for meaning becomes most apparent when one looks at large enterprises. They are becoming ever more the point of orientation whose meaning for many employees clearly exceeds its primary interest of the optimisation of operations.
Traditional ways and means become less attractive

Individualisation, as well as new common sources of meaning, compensate for deficiencies that have grown over long periods of time. Modern society thereby produces a dialectic simultaneity of contrasts. Within just a few generations, individualism has dissolved deeply rooted customs and traditions. Rituals have been crushed and central institutions weakened. Whereas sturdy social foundations once defined social cohesion, today individual life plans dominate.
The increase in individual freedom is further connected to immense personal responsibility. The individual now must permanently organise and care for his own social integration. Because economic prosperity is the basis of individualising societies, one can expect such tendencies to increase in south-east Asia, provided growth processes continue and individualisation tendencies are not suppressed by a strong cultural or political opposition movement.
At the same time, however, there is much to be said for the fact that individualistic tendencies are meeting their boundaries in the western world. The plea of the communitarians in the USA indicates plural society's weakening meaning, as does the European boom in new providers of meaning, from sects to alternative social movements. They reduce the constant pressure of self-integration and physical self-assertion by conveying identity and offering collective cover.

Interest in alternative religion is growing. In 1997 new religions and sects world-wide registered 138 million members.




Source: Wiebus, Hans- Otto: Religionen, Sekten, Seelenfänger. Bindlach: Loewe Verlag GmbH, 1997.


For example, in 1935 in Japan the group Soka Gakki split off from Buddhism and by the mid-nineties could count on 20 million members. Their ascent indicates an intercultural trend, i.e. individualisation alone is not producing a fulfilling social life. Pluralisation and changing values demand understanding through societal norms which are independent of sectarian convictions.


3. The erosion of nation-states' problem solving abilities leads to the development of transnationally operating non-governmental actors

A key experience of modern society is the increasing irrelevance of political, economic, societal, and cultural borders. They are being confronted with a growing number of international networks. International organisations and transnational, non-governmental actors are influencing political events more and more. They intervene in the internal affairs of nations where problems overtax conventional state action. Globalisation is resulting in nation-states no longer being able to effectively fulfil their traditional responsibilities without new forms of co-operation and communication. Politic and economic interdependence are changing nation-states' autonomous scope for action. The territorially bounded democracy loses its substance while transnational politics gain in impact power - mostly without democratic legitimation.

Globally acting firms as well as non-state organisations relieve the welfare state by patronage and commitment to the community. Firms are also becoming centres of competence in the change process. By taking over social responsibility they are likewise defining political positions and influencing the topics of international politics to an increasing degree.

Transnational enterprises are becoming weighty actors in international politics and their resources are often considerable. General Motor's turnover of $125 billion US in 1995 exceeded the gross national product of a medium sized economy like Norways. In 1968 7,276 companies were operating globally compared to 35,000 in 1990. By the end of the century this will reach 45,000. With their 280,000 subsidiaries abroad multinational firms produce one third of the world's products. More and more they control international investment and financial streams. Their foreign investments have increased greatly in the recent past and in doing so raised the importance of such companies for national economies. (A growing part of world trade is not properly foreign trade because it is investment and delivery of goods and services within transnational enterprises. The volume of these global transactions is estimated to be approximately US $200 billion daily.)

The number of international non-governmental organisations (NGOs) rose from 1,899 in 1968 to 4,646 in 1990. By the end of this century it will double once more. Their influence is growing: the world-spanning activities of the Pugwash conferences, the environmental protection organisation Greenpeace, or the human rights organisation Amnesty International are all examples of this. The raw material for this work is information, which is the instrument of effective communication. The transnational society is creating the platform for more expansion by further optimising digitised data flow. Even smaller organisations will be able to perform internationally co-ordinated and effective actions.

Globalisation and the fields of compensation sketched above are being driven by accelerating cycles of innovation. Both processes - opening and renewal - are interrelated. The development of new technologies opens up new fields of growth and reduces the transaction costs of acting across national borders. On the other hand, globalisation stimulates competition and thereby increases pressure to innovate. These international developments bear a certain resemblance to the situation at the beginning of the twentieth century, as internationalisation andtechnological progress brought about an unsurpassed level of simultaneous competition and interdependence. At the end of the century, the process is repeating itself but with greater speed and density than ever before.

Contents
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4

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