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Zukunftszeugen




Decision Makers 2010
Defining Tomorrow's Agenda
Conference
May 10-12, 1999, Frankfurt

Executive Summary
Conclusions
Papers

Program
Participants
Book List

Download (Word-File): Program, Summary, Conclusions, Participants.


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Executive Summary

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Priorities for Tomorrow:
How Do We Start Building the Future Today?


What decisions and concrete measures do we need to take now in order to reach the future that we desire?

How can we organize social and generational contracts in a transformed society?


William Wechsler, Director for Multinational Threats at the National Security Council in Washington, DC, based his presentation on two building blocks: first, digitalization and biotechnology are both revolutionary and permanent changes; second, the state will not wither away in a world changed by technology. Digitalization and biotech are also positive developments, as they will create wealth throughout the world. Though the state as such will not disappear, states will likely be transformed in several ways:

Federalization and transparency will both increase;
The nationalist state will decline in importance;
Small states will benefit more than others from increasing supranationalism; and
Globalization will make the consequences of policy differences more dramatic.

Both technological revolutions will give new and powerful tools to people who want to do harm. This is important for everyone in the developed world, but particularly for the United States, which rates as the world's number one target. To limit vulnerabilities, the government is working on improving terrorism preparedness, on critical infrastructure protection, and on shrinking the time between development of weapons and development of defenses against them. In particular, efforts are underway to improve detection equipment, to identify anomalous activits, to deter states from undertaking aggressive biological attacks, and to build "surge capacity" into hospitals and vaccination capabilities.

He also addressed rogue actors, globalization, and privacy.

Summary of Presentation; the views presented by Mr. Wechsler are his own and not those of the National Security Council or the United States Government.



Richard Barbrook, of the University of Westminster's Hypermedia Research Centre, took issue with the idea that the coming high-tech world is a break with the world of today. He pointed out that globalization is just now passing levels reached before World War I. In particular, the internet is not a break with the past, but a speeding up and intensification of industrialization.

Modernity is a process, rather than a steady state, and a slow process at that. For example, the internet is making real the theoretical right to a free press that was clearly articulated as much as two hundred years ago. Rights that have long been held by persons only in theory are finally being realized in practice. In the future, this may make education and social services actually fulfil their promises as well.

What's happening with the intensification through technology?

1. Work is being re-valued. In the digital world, we are seeing a revival of artisan work. Skill is a key concept, and autonomy over the pace of work is a central demand of high-tech workers. Many are also insisting on owning their own means of production.

2. We are seeing new methods of work, new means of organizing collective labor. The success of both Linux and MP3 shows the power of the gift economy. With new approaches, the gift economy begins to hybridize with both state and market.

The end of the twentieth century has supposedly brought the end of utopian visions. Paradoxically, though we may not be driven by grand visions, we may be closer to fulfilling them than ever before.

Summary of Presentation



Rafael Lopa, a Project Director for the PLDT Foundation and Executive Director of the Benigno Aquino Foundation in Manila, said that the questions are more than philosophical. In the light of the state of our world today, it is truly a practical and urgent concern. Humanity is currently caught in a race for more and more progress, more and more technology to get somewhere fast. Where that is, is not exactly clear. And what we want to achieve when we get there is even more vague. The fundamental truth that every individual matters, and that the good of society is every person's responsibility, is what has been taken for granted in the mad rush towards the future. We could look on helplessly and allow technology to dictate its rules and values on us and our children. Or we could be pro-active and give our children the values and priorities not only to survive the relentless onslaught of progress and development, but recognize the good in it and harness this for the betterment of mankind.

Summary of Presentation


Read more about the conference's conclusions and agenda for the future.


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