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				Prof. Dr. Kriengsak Chareonwongsak Presentation Summary The technological force definitely will drive mankind in the forseeable futures. My speach is confined to non-technological forces, because there will be a mixture of both, technological and non-technological impacts. The picture of industrialised society as it will be in the next 10 years I would like to paint, is a set of complex, overlapping and related observations of the future. There will be five critical, non-technological forces which will shape industrialized societies over the next 10 years. 1. Demography: increasing population size, aging population - older people will organize themselves better, and migration: although global mobility will increase, labour mobility won't. 2. Natural resources and the environment: environmental concerns will accelerate with the deteriorating environmental conditions and press on cooperation worldwide. One example is fighting over fresh water. 3. Values: western post-modernism will spread, philosophical values will tremendously affect what will happen, regional culture identification will cause clashes. 4. World order: globalization links everything - democracy, human rights, and liberalization in compliance with the market economy system; the main player will be the supra-national organization. 5. Global interaction with information dispersion and accessibility: the information revolution affects human life profoundly in a way that we have not seen before, decision makers depend heavily on the media; communication will be faster and cheaper, and the world a global village. These non-technological trends will have various effects at three levels: 1. International: Shortage of fresh water could become an international political issue. The world economy will be standardized. Labour liberalization will create more international tension. Minority groups will try to become independent nation-states. Regional integration will become more intensified. There will be better opportunities for emerging nations to develop themselves but continuing ethnic disparity. Less developed countries will take their chances and gain economic benefits. The North-South disparity will be greater than ever before. 2. National: Power of nation states will decline. States will be forced to cooperate. There will be an increasing cry for democracy in states that haven't tasted it caused by information and education. Amounts of public welfare will decrease in developed countries while increasing in developing countries. The gap between rich and poor will become wider. 3. Social: Moral and ethical standards wil erode. Societies will gradually shift towards an "anti-social-society." A main stream of global cultures will evolve. Sub-culture values will become more tolerated; I see a future of subgroups everywhere. Privacy will be threatened. In summary, society in 2010 will comprise both tension and co-operation at all levels - internationally and nationally, as well as socially. Changes will take place gradually, step by step. Some of the potential tensions would need considerable adjustments and people will need to be more adaptable as the speed of change increases. And it will be a very challenging society to live in.
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